Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 50.3%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 55.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 55.0%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Last 9: Rodrigues 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
55.7% (856)
-7.9%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
57.5% (233)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
50.0% (144)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
47.9% (445)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.4% (346)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
48.3%
58.1%
P2
47.0%
54.9%
P3
44.8%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:58 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |