Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.7% vs 43.1%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Malkin 43.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 68.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 81.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Nelson
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Malkin
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Malkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Malkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
42.7% (827)
+0.3%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
63.2% (19)
-8.4%
On power play, Malkin has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Malkin is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Nelson
Malkin
Home
41.9% (391)
45.1% (426)
Away
45.5% (400)
41.2% (420)
By Period
Nelson
Malkin
P1
47.1%
41.3%
P2
43.0%
44.0%
P3
40.9%
44.7%
OT
63.6%
25.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
43.7%
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2016 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 2 | 15:19 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |