Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 40.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Barzal 47.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 54.8%
Defensive zone
Malkin 53.8%
Neutral zone
Malkin 53.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Malkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Malkin
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Malkin
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
42.3% (52)
+3.2%
On even strength, Malkin has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Malkin is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Malkin shoots left. Barzal is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Home / Away
Malkin
Barzal
Home
47.5% (326)
28.0% (25)
Away
44.0% (307)
55.6% (27)
By Period
Malkin
Barzal
P1
49.3%
47.4%
P2
44.7%
45.8%
P3
42.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
49.5%
37.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
45.8%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:59 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |