Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Barzal 42.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 75.6%
Defensive zone
Malkin 51.7%
Neutral zone
Malkin 59.0%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Malkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
18
(38 meetings)
20
18
Malkin
Barzal
Last 10: Malkin 5-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
4
2
Malkin
Barzal
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
5
10
Malkin
Barzal
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
11
6
Malkin
Barzal
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
41.9% (3,571)
+3.7%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
43.4% (205)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
42.3% (26)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Barzal is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,704).
Home / Away
Malkin
Barzal
Home
47.6% (5,395)
43.2% (1,901)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Malkin
Barzal
P1
45.9%
40.6%
P2
46.2%
44.6%
P3
45.2%
41.1%
OT
49.0%
27.6%
Final 5 min
46.0%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 04:59 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:08 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 11, 2021 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:31 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |