Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 51.1%
Defensive zone
Nazar 69.9%
Neutral zone
Nazar 65.4%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nazar
MacKinnon
Last 6: Nazar 2-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Nazar
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (314)
49.2% (1,266)
-4.0%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
54.9% (193)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
49.1% (55)
-4.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
43.4% (196)
50.9% (740)
Away
45.9% (185)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.3%
50.9%
P2
40.3%
51.8%
P3
46.7%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.6%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |