Frank Nazar vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.9% vs 46.8%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Nazar leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.7%
Neutral zone
Nazar 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nazar
MacKinnon
Last 10: Nazar 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
5
Nazar
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
46.1% (11,264)
+0.2%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
53.2% (1,421)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
42.8% (502)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
44.2% (536)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
47.4% (627)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.7%
47.4%
P2
42.2%
46.6%
P3
47.1%
46.1%
OT
66.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |