Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 71.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 74.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 85.2%
14.8%
85.2%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (393)
49.1% (825)
-2.3%
Power Play
49.4% (81)
65.4% (130)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (30)
34.5% (29)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (128).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
45.7% (243)
52.6% (489)
Away
45.2% (261)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.0%
50.3%
P2
42.9%
52.6%
P3
45.3%
49.2%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
42.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
45.4%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |