Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.2%
Defensive zone
Nazar 68.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 62.5%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Nazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nazar
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nazar
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
58.7% (858)
-11.5%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
55.8% (285)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
62.9% (35)
-32.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Nazar
Hertl
Home
45.0% (329)
60.1% (599)
Away
48.5% (431)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Nazar
Hertl
P1
47.8%
52.4%
P2
43.4%
63.9%
P3
48.4%
58.5%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |