Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 82.5%
Defensive zone
Nazar 75.7%
Neutral zone
Nazar 74.9%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Nazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Nazar
Hertl
Last 10: Nazar 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nazar
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Nazar
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
53.9% (8,303)
-7.6%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
59.2% (1,995)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
46.3% (806)
-10.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Nazar
Hertl
Home
44.2% (536)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
47.4% (627)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Nazar
Hertl
P1
47.7%
53.6%
P2
42.2%
54.2%
P3
47.1%
55.3%
OT
66.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |