Ivan Barbashev vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +28.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 40.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-28.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 61.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 54.7%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Barbashev
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
20.0% (45)
49.7% (1,038)
-29.7%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
63.7% (157)
-20.8%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +29.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barbashev is 20.0% vs right-shot opponents (15).
Barbashev shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Home
23.1% (26)
53.1% (618)
Away
23.1% (26)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Barbashev
MacKinnon
P1
36.4%
49.3%
P2
6.7%
53.0%
P3
20.0%
50.7%
Final 5 min
0.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
24.0%▼
35.0%
23.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |