Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Miller wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.9% vs Novak 43.0% (+12.4%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 72.3%
Defensive zone
Miller 89.7%
Neutral zone
Miller 83.8%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Miller
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Miller
Novak
Last 10: Miller 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
4
Miller
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
6
2
Miller
Novak
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Miller
Novak
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (6,690)
41.8% (1,568)
+13.5%
Power Play
58.0% (1,289)
51.5% (134)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (919)
50.0% (2)
-1.6%
On even strength, Miller has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Miller shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Miller
Novak
Home
56.0% (4,622)
45.1% (831)
Away
53.8% (4,276)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Miller
Novak
P1
54.8%
43.7%
P2
55.7%
42.8%
P3
54.1%
41.1%
OT
62.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.3%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:16 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:29 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |