Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McBain wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 76.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 93.2%
Neutral zone
McBain 81.6%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
McBain
Hertl
Last 8: McBain 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
McBain
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
McBain
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (569)
58.7% (858)
-6.2%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
55.8% (285)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
36.2% (47)
62.9% (35)
-26.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (374).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
52.4% (309)
60.1% (599)
Away
49.7% (326)
56.1% (579)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
54.0%
52.4%
P2
52.7%
63.9%
P3
46.5%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |