Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McBain 83.6%
Defensive zone
McBain 88.8%
Neutral zone
McBain 84.0%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
McBain
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
McBain
Hertl
Last 10: McBain 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
11
McBain
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McBain
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (2,322)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.8%
Power Play
44.6% (56)
59.2% (1,995)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (309)
46.3% (806)
-10.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
McBain shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
McBain
Hertl
Home
49.1% (1,379)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.0% (1,308)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
McBain
Hertl
P1
47.1%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
54.2%
P3
45.4%
55.3%
OT
37.5%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:29 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jack McBain |