Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Schwartz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schwartz 50.0% vs Monahan 51.2% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 61.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 84.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 63.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Schwartz
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Schwartz
Monahan
Last 8: Schwartz 6-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
3
0
Schwartz
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
3
2
Schwartz
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schwartz
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (651)
51.1% (11,407)
-3.9%
Power Play
56.2% (345)
53.6% (2,582)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (46)
45.9% (772)
-2.4%
On even strength, Monahan has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Schwartz is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Schwartz shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Schwartz
Monahan
Home
51.3% (526)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
48.6% (516)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Schwartz
Monahan
P1
49.1%
51.0%
P2
49.7%
51.7%
P3
51.0%
51.0%
OT
53.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 3 | 12:59 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 25, 2017 | OT | 02:57 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jaden Schwartz |