Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 84.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Evans
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Evans
O'Reilly
Last 10: Evans 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Evans
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
6
1
Evans
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Evans
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
55.0% (1,084)
-0.6%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
56.8% (303)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
40.3% (149)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Evans
O'Reilly
Home
53.7% (581)
54.8% (759)
Away
50.5% (556)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Evans
O'Reilly
P1
54.6%
55.3%
P2
50.0%
51.9%
P3
52.3%
54.2%
OT
46.7%
64.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:23 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 01:35 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 07:58 | Defensive | Jake Evans |