Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 93.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 73.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Evans
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Evans
O'Reilly
Last 6: Evans 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Evans
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
4
0
Evans
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
56.2% (983)
-1.8%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
55.5% (254)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
52.0% (102)
-3.9%
On power play, Evans has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Evans
O'Reilly
Home
55.1% (541)
56.2% (697)
Away
50.8% (581)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Evans
O'Reilly
P1
51.8%
54.5%
P2
53.3%
55.5%
P3
53.8%
57.1%
OT
38.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |