Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.4%). Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 80.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Evans
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Evans
O'Reilly
Last 6: Evans 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Evans
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
55.7% (856)
-0.1%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
57.5% (233)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (144)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Evans
O'Reilly
Home
54.7% (402)
55.5% (616)
Away
56.9% (341)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Evans
O'Reilly
P1
57.9%
58.1%
P2
55.2%
54.9%
P3
53.6%
53.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |