Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +22.8% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.0% vs Zegras 37.0% (+22.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 80.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 91.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 67.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Evans
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Evans
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Evans
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (522)
33.0% (264)
+22.6%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
32.1% (56)
+40.6%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (210)
50.0% (2)
+5.2%
On power play, Evans has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Evans shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Evans
Zegras
Home
54.7% (402)
35.3% (173)
Away
56.9% (341)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Evans
Zegras
P1
57.9%
33.0%
P2
55.2%
35.7%
P3
53.6%
29.7%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |