Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Zegras 39.5% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Zegras leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Zegras 87.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.9%
Neutral zone
Zegras 54.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Evans
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Evans
Zegras
Last 10: Evans 4-6 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
1
2
Evans
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Zegras
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
3
4
Evans
Zegras
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (3,740)
39.0% (1,703)
+14.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
38.5% (148)
+22.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,228)
25.0% (8)
+22.1%
On power play, Evans has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Evans shoots right. Zegras is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (605).
Home / Away
Evans
Zegras
Home
53.3% (2,621)
40.5% (908)
Away
51.0% (2,418)
37.3% (951)
By Period
Evans
Zegras
P1
54.0%
40.0%
P2
50.9%
38.6%
P3
52.0%
38.2%
OT
46.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 09:54 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 16:03 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:39 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |