Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Benn wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 52.9% vs Novak 43.0% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 86.4%
Defensive zone
Benn 88.5%
Neutral zone
Benn 88.2%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 87.7%
87.7%
12.3%
Benn
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Benn
Novak
Last 7: Benn 5-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Benn
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Benn
3
1
Benn
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,456)
41.8% (1,568)
+11.7%
Power Play
52.6% (2,055)
51.5% (134)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (515)
50.0% (2)
-0.7%
On even strength, Benn has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,271).
Benn shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Benn
Novak
Home
54.9% (4,550)
45.1% (831)
Away
51.0% (4,492)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Benn
Novak
P1
51.9%
43.7%
P2
52.6%
42.8%
P3
54.0%
41.1%
OT
62.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.6%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
46.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:21 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |