Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.7% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.1%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 89.5%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 66.1%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 10: Dickinson 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
7
Dickinson
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
5
1
Dickinson
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Dickinson
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (670)
58.7% (858)
-6.8%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
55.8% (285)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (156)
62.9% (35)
-23.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
48.7% (431)
60.1% (599)
Away
50.7% (404)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
43.4%
52.4%
P2
54.9%
63.9%
P3
49.6%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |