Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 29 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 47.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 36-26 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Dickinson 71.8%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 89.7%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 81.3%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 78.9%
78.9%
21.1%
Dickinson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
36
(62 meetings)
26
36
Dickinson
Hertl
Last 10: Dickinson 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
22
Dickinson
Hertl
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
10
5
Dickinson
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Dickinson
Hertl
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,390)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.9%
Power Play
51.1% (141)
59.2% (1,995)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (890)
46.3% (806)
-5.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dickinson is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,470).
Dickinson shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Hertl
Home
49.3% (2,791)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
46.0% (2,630)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Dickinson
Hertl
P1
47.0%
53.6%
P2
48.2%
54.2%
P3
47.7%
55.3%
OT
52.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
47.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 17:27 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |