Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.7% vs Novak 42.5% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 86.6%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 81.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 56.6%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Dickinson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dickinson
Novak
Last 5: Dickinson 2-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Dickinson
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (670)
40.4% (408)
+11.5%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
45.5% (33)
+21.2%
On power play, Dickinson has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Dickinson shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Novak
Home
48.7% (431)
42.0% (212)
Away
50.7% (404)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Dickinson
Novak
P1
43.4%
41.9%
P2
54.9%
39.3%
P3
49.6%
42.1%
OT
66.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |