Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 47.7% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 79.8%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 80.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 51.4%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Dickinson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Dickinson
Novak
Last 10: Dickinson 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
3
0
Dickinson
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
3
7
Dickinson
Novak
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,390)
41.8% (1,568)
+7.2%
Power Play
51.1% (141)
51.5% (134)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (890)
50.0% (2)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dickinson is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,470).
Dickinson shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Novak
Home
49.3% (2,791)
45.1% (831)
Away
46.0% (2,630)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Dickinson
Novak
P1
47.0%
43.7%
P2
48.2%
42.8%
P3
47.7%
41.1%
OT
52.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.4%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▲
50.5%
47.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 08:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |