Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Megna wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Megna 49.2% vs Brown 54.6% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Megna 64.3%
Defensive zone
Brown 61.3%
Neutral zone
Brown 55.8%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Megna
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Megna
Brown
Last 8: Megna 4-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Megna
1
0
Megna
Brown
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Megna
2
0
Megna
Brown
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
4
Megna
Brown
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Megna
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (401)
56.5% (726)
-7.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
62.5% (8)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
47.8% (136)
-0.2%
On power play, Brown has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Megna is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (127).
Megna shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Megna
Brown
Home
49.3% (227)
57.4% (364)
Away
48.6% (220)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Megna
Brown
P1
51.7%
51.4%
P2
49.3%
54.6%
P3
46.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
58.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Megna
46.0%▼
53.5%
49.0%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Jayson Megna |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 02:30 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 11:27 | Defensive | Jayson Megna |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jayson Megna |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Jayson Megna |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:10 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |