Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Aho 50.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 67.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 72.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Pageau
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pageau
Aho
Last 8: Pageau 4-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
50.5% (878)
+8.9%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
53.5% (144)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
44.3% (61)
+15.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Pageau
Aho
Home
58.4% (430)
53.8% (571)
Away
61.0% (559)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Pageau
Aho
P1
55.4%
49.0%
P2
61.8%
51.7%
P3
61.5%
50.3%
OT
75.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
63.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |