Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 39 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Aho 51.3% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 52-43 in 95 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 52.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 90.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 76.7%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Pageau
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
52
-
43
(95 meetings)
52
43
Pageau
Aho
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
6
33
Pageau
Aho
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
33
6
Pageau
Aho
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
4
Pageau
Aho
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
50.2% (6,646)
+5.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
58.9% (1,310)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
46.5% (465)
+3.1%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,869).
Pageau shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Pageau
Aho
Home
56.3% (6,267)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Pageau
Aho
P1
54.7%
51.1%
P2
56.3%
52.1%
P3
53.5%
50.8%
OT
54.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |