Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 69.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 52.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pageau
Hertl
Last 6: Pageau 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Pageau
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
57.0% (718)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
64.9% (188)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
44.2% (77)
+3.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
57.0% (618)
59.2% (463)
Away
53.9% (607)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
54.4%
56.3%
P2
61.0%
55.4%
P3
51.0%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
72.0%▲
62.5%
55.4%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |