Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.3%). Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 39-33 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.4%
Defensive zone
Pageau 79.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 56.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
33
(72 meetings)
39
33
Pageau
Hertl
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
20
Pageau
Hertl
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
21
7
Pageau
Hertl
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
6
Pageau
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,525)
53.9% (8,303)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.0% (1,008)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
46.3% (806)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,869).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
56.3% (6,267)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
54.7%
53.6%
P2
56.3%
54.2%
P3
53.5%
55.3%
OT
54.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
54.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |