Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 59.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 84.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 61.5%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Pageau
Hertl
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Pageau
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
8
1
Pageau
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (726)
58.7% (858)
+0.7%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
55.8% (285)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
62.9% (35)
-3.2%
On power play, Pageau has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
58.4% (430)
60.1% (599)
Away
61.0% (559)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
55.4%
52.4%
P2
61.8%
63.9%
P3
61.5%
58.5%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |