Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 49.2% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 81.4%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 53.6%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 67.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
Last 7: Kotkaniemi 2-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
4
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (3,840)
51.8% (7,849)
-2.7%
Power Play
51.1% (350)
54.8% (1,048)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (35)
44.2% (1,109)
+1.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,774).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
Home
49.7% (2,194)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
48.6% (2,031)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Karlsson
P1
49.8%
50.3%
P2
50.5%
51.3%
P3
47.2%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
44.9%
Final 5 min
49.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.2%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 08:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |