Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Tavares 59.8% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 73.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 76.1%
23.9%
76.1%
Pavelski
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Pavelski
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
60.9% (1,043)
-8.4%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
60.4% (278)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
47.6% (21)
-3.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Tavares
Home
55.0% (391)
63.5% (684)
Away
49.7% (360)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Pavelski
Tavares
P1
50.8%
60.3%
P2
55.0%
60.4%
P3
52.0%
60.1%
OT
25.0%
92.3%
Final 5 min
56.2%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |