Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Tavares 57.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 77.3%
22.7%
77.3%
Pavelski
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Pavelski
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
57.5% (914)
-5.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
60.5% (309)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
59.1% (22)
+3.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Tavares is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Tavares
Home
54.2% (360)
61.0% (661)
Away
52.6% (329)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Pavelski
Tavares
P1
54.5%
58.6%
P2
56.7%
57.8%
P3
50.8%
58.4%
OT
30.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2022 | OT | 02:05 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |