Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Tavares 58.7% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 65.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 58.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Pavelski
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Pavelski
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Pavelski
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
59.2% (1,035)
-7.7%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
60.0% (310)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
42.9% (7)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Tavares
Home
53.1% (339)
57.5% (668)
Away
49.2% (356)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Pavelski
Tavares
P1
53.8%
58.0%
P2
47.8%
60.1%
P3
50.2%
61.0%
OT
71.4%
27.8%
Final 5 min
48.6%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |