Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Steel 48.8% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 76.1%
Defensive zone
Steel 73.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 74.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Pavelski
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Pavelski
Steel
Last 6: Pavelski 1-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
2
Pavelski
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Pavelski
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Pavelski
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
49.5% (553)
+2.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
61.3% (31)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
30.6% (49)
+31.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Steel is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Steel
Home
54.2% (360)
46.4% (347)
Away
52.6% (329)
51.4% (286)
By Period
Pavelski
Steel
P1
54.5%
52.1%
P2
56.7%
49.8%
P3
50.8%
45.2%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |