Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Steel 50.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 51.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Pavelski
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Pavelski
Steel
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
Steel
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
5
Pavelski
Steel
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Pavelski
Steel
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.5% (2,871)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
62.6% (179)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
37.8% (246)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Steel is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,229).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Steel
Home
56.4% (5,998)
50.0% (1,551)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.3% (1,745)
By Period
Pavelski
Steel
P1
53.5%
51.9%
P2
55.2%
49.5%
P3
53.9%
49.5%
OT
52.3%
41.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:27 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 04:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 2 | 18:40 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 3, 2018 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |