Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Aho 48.7% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 72.8%
Defensive zone
Aho 72.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 70.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 71.9%
28.1%
71.9%
Pavelski
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Pavelski
Aho
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Pavelski
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Pavelski
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
47.4% (953)
+6.6%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
58.0% (174)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
41.6% (77)
+0.1%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Aho is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Aho
Home
55.2% (458)
50.2% (609)
Away
51.4% (531)
46.9% (595)
By Period
Pavelski
Aho
P1
54.0%
48.7%
P2
54.5%
50.2%
P3
50.5%
47.0%
OT
60.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 15:14 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 01:00 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |