Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 52.4%). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Aho 52.2% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 56.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Pavelski
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Aho
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
51.6% (819)
+0.9%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
58.4% (173)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
46.3% (67)
-1.9%
On power play, Aho has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Aho
Home
55.0% (391)
53.9% (568)
Away
49.7% (360)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Pavelski
Aho
P1
50.8%
55.4%
P2
55.0%
51.2%
P3
52.0%
50.9%
OT
25.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |