Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Aho 51.2% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 59.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Pavelski
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Pavelski
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
48.5% (778)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
63.4% (191)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
50.8% (65)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Aho is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Aho
Home
54.2% (360)
51.3% (530)
Away
52.6% (329)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Pavelski
Aho
P1
54.5%
50.0%
P2
56.7%
51.3%
P3
50.8%
52.1%
OT
30.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |