Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Tavares 54.4% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 86.3%
Defensive zone
Veleno 91.7%
Neutral zone
Veleno 83.1%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Veleno
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
17
(25 meetings)
8
17
Veleno
Tavares
Last 10: Veleno 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
12
Veleno
Tavares
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
4
1
Veleno
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
4
Veleno
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
54.0% (16,169)
-6.7%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
56.4% (4,298)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
50.5% (624)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
Veleno
Tavares
Home
45.3% (1,136)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Veleno
Tavares
P1
47.9%
55.0%
P2
47.7%
54.1%
P3
45.9%
54.0%
OT
35.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 04:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 03:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 18:41 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 08:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |