Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 50.9% vs Frost 56.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.7%
Defensive zone
Veleno 78.6%
Neutral zone
Veleno 58.1%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Veleno
Frost
Last 5: Veleno 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Veleno
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (278)
56.0% (755)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
88.9% (9)
-51.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
49.6% (123)
57.3% (497)
Away
52.2% (184)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
54.1%
60.2%
P2
48.8%
56.0%
P3
52.6%
54.8%
OT
25.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
60.3%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |