Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 50.9% vs Frost 54.9% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.0%
Defensive zone
Veleno 76.4%
Neutral zone
Veleno 61.4%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Veleno
Frost
Last 5: Veleno 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Veleno
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (262)
54.1% (521)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
100.0% (5)
-69.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +69.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (172).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
49.6% (123)
57.2% (339)
Away
52.5% (162)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
53.8%
58.2%
P2
47.8%
55.6%
P3
54.5%
52.9%
OT
25.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
61.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
50.0%▬
50.5%
51.2%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |