Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Veleno wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 47.2% vs Frost 50.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Veleno leads 15-13 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 79.6%
Defensive zone
Veleno 61.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Veleno
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
13
(28 meetings)
15
13
Veleno
Frost
Last 10: Veleno 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
6
Veleno
Frost
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
4
2
Veleno
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Veleno
7
5
Veleno
Frost
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,317)
49.7% (3,652)
-2.4%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
55.4% (632)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (88)
55.0% (40)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Veleno is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,623).
Veleno shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Veleno
Frost
Home
45.3% (1,136)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
48.6% (1,367)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Veleno
Frost
P1
47.9%
51.2%
P2
47.7%
51.3%
P3
45.9%
48.8%
OT
35.7%
64.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.1%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 06:21 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |
| Mar 5, 2023 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |