Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Dowd 48.8% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 63.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tavares
Dowd
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Tavares
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
51.2% (666)
+6.5%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
0.0% (2)
+55.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
41.5% (224)
+10.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +55.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
57.4% (636)
48.5% (466)
Away
57.1% (587)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
57.1%
48.4%
P2
57.0%
46.8%
P3
57.6%
51.3%
OT
57.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |