Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Dowd 49.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Tavares
Dowd
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
8
0
Tavares
Dowd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Tavares
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
52.2% (835)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
60.0% (10)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
44.0% (350)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
59.7% (610)
51.5% (619)
Away
57.0% (698)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
57.2%
51.7%
P2
58.5%
51.6%
P3
59.4%
47.0%
OT
46.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.3%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |