Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 95.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 63.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tavares
Dowd
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Tavares
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
51.0% (671)
+6.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
0.0% (2)
+56.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
41.5% (224)
+10.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
57.4% (636)
48.2% (471)
Away
57.2% (612)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
57.5%
48.3%
P2
56.9%
46.8%
P3
57.5%
51.0%
OT
57.1%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |