Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (97% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 37-25 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Tavares
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
25
(62 meetings)
37
25
Tavares
Dowd
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
29
1
Tavares
Dowd
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
17
Tavares
Dowd
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
7
Tavares
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
52.3% (6,036)
+1.7%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
56.1% (164)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
44.1% (1,638)
+6.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Tavares
Dowd
Home
56.1% (10,525)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Tavares
Dowd
P1
55.0%
51.5%
P2
54.1%
50.4%
P3
54.0%
50.3%
OT
55.9%
45.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:57 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |