Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 72.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Kuraly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
3
Tavares
Kuraly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Tavares
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
52.6% (464)
+5.1%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
100.0% (1)
-44.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
46.5% (155)
+5.7%
On power play, Kuraly has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
57.4% (636)
55.9% (322)
Away
57.2% (612)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
57.5%
55.9%
P2
56.9%
46.7%
P3
57.5%
50.7%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |