Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 36 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Kuraly 50.4% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 55-39 in 94 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 71.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Tavares
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
39
(94 meetings)
55
39
Tavares
Kuraly
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
5
Tavares
Kuraly
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
12
20
Tavares
Kuraly
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
12
14
Tavares
Kuraly
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
51.6% (5,161)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
56.4% (101)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
44.4% (1,091)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Tavares
Kuraly
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Tavares
Kuraly
P1
55.0%
51.2%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
54.0%
50.2%
OT
55.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |