Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Drouin wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Drouin 88.2%
Defensive zone
Drouin 88.7%
Neutral zone
Drouin 91.2%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Drouin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Drouin
Hertl
Last 10: Drouin 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Drouin
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Drouin
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Drouin
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
53.9% (8,303)
-10.4%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
59.2% (1,995)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
46.3% (806)
-7.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Drouin shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Drouin
Hertl
Home
44.0% (1,041)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Drouin
Hertl
P1
45.9%
53.6%
P2
42.0%
54.2%
P3
45.0%
55.3%
OT
47.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |