Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Eberle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eberle 43.1% vs Dowd 50.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eberle 79.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 96.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 88.0%
Result
Jordan Eberle favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Eberle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Eberle
Dowd
Last 8: Eberle 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eberle
6
0
Eberle
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Eberle
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eberle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (343)
52.6% (5,850)
-11.2%
Power Play
40.4% (57)
56.1% (164)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
43.9% (1,600)
+6.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Eberle is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Eberle shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Home / Away
Eberle
Dowd
Home
39.6% (192)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
43.1% (216)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Eberle
Dowd
P1
43.2%
51.9%
P2
34.8%
50.7%
P3
45.3%
50.1%
OT
100.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
40.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eberle
42.0%▬
41.5%
41.4%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |