Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Eberle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eberle 43.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eberle 79.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 96.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 87.9%
Result
Jordan Eberle favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Eberle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Eberle
Dowd
Last 8: Eberle 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eberle
6
0
Eberle
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Eberle
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eberle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (347)
52.3% (6,036)
-10.8%
Power Play
40.4% (57)
56.1% (164)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
44.1% (1,638)
+5.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Eberle is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Eberle shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Eberle
Dowd
Home
39.7% (194)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
43.1% (218)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Eberle
Dowd
P1
43.5%
51.5%
P2
35.1%
50.4%
P3
45.0%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
41.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eberle
38.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Jordan Eberle |